Florida Forecast Summary 2006-2009

This is a compilation of information provided by Hank Fishkind, Ph.D., as given at a Conference recently:

1) 2nd Half of 2006 was a low point of a cycle, with a housing slowdown and high energy prices sap consumer spending;

2) 2007 is expected to be a soft landing/below trend growth. The housing bubble will deflate, and strong consumption with a weak dollar is to prop up the economy;

3) 2008 will start the recovery and strong growth for 2009;

4) The main forecast risk is energy price spikes;

5) Ft. Myers and Miami are the weakest housing market. Single-family market is stabilizing, but condominium market is in serious trouble in many areas. Land market is particularly risky;

6) Between 2000 and 2006 Schools have accounted for 41% of the growth in property taxes, Cities are 19%, and Counties are 32%;

7) Dollar growth in this time period by local government agencies in primarily in Law Enforcement accounting for 44.84% of the growth in the last 6 years;

8) Growth in cost for counties have increased much greater than for the CPI by 26%;

9) Employment growth has remained steady and income is still growing faster than inflation;

10) Recently US housing starts are stabilizing;

11) Michigan and Ohio are in recession;

12) Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine are about to go into recession;

13) Florida, NY, PA, MA, CT, MD, DE, AZ, NV, WA and OR are average in terms of economy;

14) Texas, LA, OK, WY, WV, NM, CO, and ND are the only states which are positive in their economy;

15) More Floridians are moving out than in, with North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee leading in recipients;

16) Florida's public school enrollment is falling, proving that high growth is over;

17) Florida's net migration from 2000 to 2005 was 1,585,704. The largest of all states, and almost double the next largest of Texas;

18) Broward County is approaching build out with Western Broward booms along I-75. Infrastructure investments are a challenge with roads and schools. The Airport expansion would be a big plus, along with the renaissance of downtown Ft. Lauderdale, Hollywood beach rebuilt and slot machine gambling;

19) The running out of land in Broward is causing land prices to accelerate a tight land market, which inhibits economic growth;

20) Broward County new and existing realty markets have recently stabilized, but below prior rates of past years with higher prices, due to lack of land;

21) It is projected that Broward County's housing market will be balanced through 2009 with little inventory;

22) With few places to build residential and high prices, housing starts will slow down;

23) Broward County non residential will remain steady, but land is limited;

24) Pressure from lack of land is pushing growth into Palm Beach County.

For more information: http://www.fishkind.com/download/fishkind_econ93.pdf and http://www.fishkind.com/