Sunday, April 21, 2013

2013 DRAFT PICKS AFTER FREE AGENCY - DOLPHINS


Now that the bulk of Free Agency signings are complete for now, we need to turn our attention on the 2013 NFL Draft.  Following the formula:  P – C – L + F = D, where P = Players presently on the team, C = Players the team plans on cutting no matter what, L = Free Agents loss, F = Free Agents picked up, and D = Draft Selections by position, the Dolphins needs can be assessed as this.

Initially their greatest needs were WR, CB, TE, OG, OT, S, DT, back-up QB and DE.  In Free Agency they obtained 2 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 OG, resigned 1 WR, resigned a S, resigned a back-up QB, franchised a DT.  They also replaced 2 of the LB’s and a DT. 

So this is how their needs shape up now:

WR – Need is greatly reduced though a WR in the late rounds would be helpful

TE – Need is still great since the Free Agent TE is only signed for 1 year and the team needs 2 really good TE’s.  Second highest need.

CB – With the signing of Grimes, the need drops but another CB is still needed.  CB’s in this draft is one of the deepest positions, so a good choice can be picked up in the late 2nd or 3rd round. 

OG and OT (Right) – Another need that has to be address early in the draft with emphasis on the OT.

S – Since the Dolphins resigned a Safety on a 1 year deal, selecting a Safety is the 3rd highest priority.

DT – Franchising their DT was critical.  If they can’t resign him for a long term deal, then they may consider drafting a DT in a lower round, though they could wait to 2014 to get a much higher rated one.

DE – Since a second shut down DE is a need, considering that several other high profile positions have been address, it would not be a surprise to make this a 1st round pick.  If not, then it is expected to be one of the first 6 picks made. 

QB – This position is covered for the next 2 years, though a late round selection may be good to create competition.

So how should the Dolphins Draft:

1st Round – CB or DE
2nd Round 1st Pick – TE
2nd Round – S, CB (if not picked already) or OG/OT
3rd Round – S, CB or OG/OT, whichever they didn’t get in the 2nd round, possibly a DE (if no selected already)
3rd Round – DT, CB or DE (or S if not picked up before)
4th Round – WR or DT (if one hasn’t been selected)
From the 5th Round, if not already selected (or an extra person at a position is needed):  QB, DE, TE, RB, and best available players left on the board.

CB
Dee Millner                   1
Xavier Rhodes              1                             
Desmond Trufant           2
Jonathan Banks              2
Jordan Poyer                 3

TE
Tyler Eifert                    1 or 2 (but is high for 1, may trade down and still select)
Zach Ertz                       2
Nike Kasa                     5


OG/OT
Jonathan Cooper G                          1
Chance Warmack G                 1
D.J. Fluker T                             1
Justin Pugh G/T                         3
Terron Armstead T/G                3
Kyle Long T/G                          3
Hugh Thornton G                      3
Brennan Williams                    4

WR
Da’Rick Rogers               3
Ryan Swope                    4
Marquise Goodwin          4
Steadman Bailey              4
Cobi Hamilton                 5
Denard Robinson             6

S
Matt Elam                        2
Eric Reid                          2
Jonathan Cyprian              2
Phillip Thomas                  3
Shamarko Thomas            3
Jordan Kovacs                 UFA


DE
Bjoern Werner                1
Ezekiel Ansah                  1
Datone Jones                   1
Cornelius Washington       4
David Bass                       5

My hope for the draft would be as follows (assuming no draft trades):


1st Round - Bjoern Werner or Ezekiel Ansah DE, and if not Chance Warmack G or D.J. Fluker T    
2nd Round 1st Pick - Zach Ertz TE
2nd Round 2nd Pick - Jonathan Banks CB
3rd Round 1st Pick - Justin Pugh G/T or Terron Armstead T/G
3rd Round 2nd Pick - Phillip Thomas or Shamarko Thomas S
4th Round - Steadman Bailey WR
5th Round - Nike Kasa TE

Alternatively:

1st Round - Xavier Rhodes CB                     
2nd Round 1st Pick - Zach Ertz TE
2nd Round 2nd Pick - Justin Pugh G/T or Terron Armstead T/G
3rd Round 1st Pick - Jordan Poyer CB
3rd Round 2nd Pick - Phillip Thomas or Shamarko Thomas S
4th Round - Steadman Bailey WR
5th Round - David Bass DE

But what I really would like to see is the Dolphins trade down from the #12 draft pick to around #20 and pick  up an extra 2nd round pick.  The 1st round pick would be TE Tyler Eifert, and the three 2nd round picks would be for a CB, T/G and DE.

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