Analysis of the Lauderhill Commissioner Races

As everyone knows, Commissioner Berger and Commission Holness won re-election on November 4. But how and where did they win. Each race had unique qualities in how voters decided who to vote for. The results and this analysis show the impact of some of these factors.

Lauderhill Seat #1, pitted Howard Berger, Tyson Jones and Randy Robinson against each other. Since Mr. Berger and Jones have both sat on the Commission, it was commonly seen as a race between the two of them, which it was.

Mr. Berger did his best in all but one precinct north of Oakland Park Blvd., the south half of Central Lauderhill, and the East Side. His best areas were 3L which is part of Inverrary (by 247 votes), and 15L –Environ (by 451 votes). Mr. Jones did best in the north half of Central, and the entire Southeast Area (newly annexed). His best precinct was 29L – part of Broward Estates (by 226 votes).

Randy Robinson was the third candidate, and trailed far behind. However, his entry into this race could have been significant. While the difference between Tyson and Berger was 1154 votes, Mr. Robinson received 1334 votes. Those 1373 votes were spread relatively evenly throughout all precincts.

While it is impossible to say if Mr. Robinson had not run that it would have changed the result. It appears that the results probably would have been a lot closer. If Mr. Robinson had not run, then for Jones to win, it would have required him to take over 84% of Robinson’s vote. Not necessarily that likely because Mr. Robinson’s vote was too spread out around the city, but still possible. Therefore, Mr. Robinson could have played a factor in the result of this race. Also interesting in this race was that Early Voting heavily favored Mr. Jones, but Absentee and Election Day voting went to Mr. Berger.

In Lauderhill Seat #2, the race clearly favored Commissioner Holness against 4 other challengers. He led in all precincts except the three in St. George and Broward Estates, where Jacob Greene won by a good margin. Otherwise, the victory was clear cut.

What was interesting about this race was the difference between 2nd and 3rd place. Throughout the city Ruth Lynch and Jacob Greene were somewhat closer, with only 2 notably concentrated exceptions. Mr. Greene did slightly better (102 votes) in Inverrary, and he did significantly better in the Southeast area of the city (the newly annexed area) where he resides. In those 5 precincts in the Southeast, Mr. Greene received 1020 more votes than Ms. Lynch, and added to his advantage of 392 votes from the remaining 24 precincts.

The other two candidates were Terry Corrado and Paul Shelton, who were not factors in this race.